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⏰ The end of an era

+ the FANG era, that is & can we pull off a soft landing?

December 20, 2022 View online | Sign up TOGETHER WITH Good Tuesday to you. The Gist team here at Finny will be taking a 2 week winter break, and we'll be back here on January 5th. In the meantime, happy holidays & happy new year to you all! Can you guess what percent of Americans are planning to buy fewer gifts this holiday season because of inflation? a. 40%, b. 50%, c. 60%. 🌊 Check below for the answer. Here are today's topics: Can we pull off a soft landing? The end of the FANG era Dodging the rising cost of home insurance

ECONOMY Can We Pull Off a Soft Landing? It's difficult to land a plane delicately in any conditions, let alone in the midst of strong crosswinds, and it takes a mix of experience, some outside guidance, and a little bit of luck to do so successfully.  Getting historic inflation in check while avoiding a recession might as well be the same thing. It's hard to aggressively throttle down the economy without bringing it to an abrupt halt, but that's what the Fed has been tasked with. And they might just pull it off.  Checking our altitude What is a soft landing? Most agree it's a scenario in which we're able to bring down inflation without going into a recession. It's basically a goal of Central Banks when increasing rates just enough to fight inflation without causing a severe economic downturn. What we've accomplished: CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in June and has meandered downward since. Markets have been roiled by pessimism involving the cost of financing and growth fears, crypto has been checked, and even lofty housing prices are beginning to slowly decline. Not a perfect execution by any means, but not bad either.  The dangers ahead: The Fed is expected to continue slowing their rate hikes, now down to 0.5% a month, and eventually end up around 5% to 5.25% by the end of 2023. Hefty job losses are anticipated, up to 175,000 per month next year, and overall growth is expected to slump temporarily. Happy ending or not?  Whether or not we'll be able to navigate the remainder of this landing smoothly depends a lot on if more complications arise. So far we've successfully made a dent in our inflation, curtailed lofty market valuations, deflated some bubbles, and even brought down the white-hot housing market. But there's still a lot of elevation left to lose before things are "normal" again. Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it: About Recessions Investing Basics 6 mins

MARKET OUTLOOK The End of the FANG Era 2022 has humbled the entire market, but perhaps the biggest blow was delivered to an area previously assumed invincible — FANG stocks, the tech giants. These high-flying tech stocks have been a buoy to the market's growth throughout the 2010s, but it seems the hype might've finally culminated in 2021. Many are viewing this as more than just a doldrum, but maybe the end of an era.  Taking damage FANG defined: FANG is supposed to refer to Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google, but in truth, the definition encapsulates more than those companies. What the outdated acronym is truly trying to describe is the broader big tech, big growth portion of the market, and it's more inclusive than it gives on.  The losses: Traditional FANG members have had it rough this year. Facebook (now Meta) is down -66%, Amazon -47%, Netflix -46%, and Google fairing the best at -36%. These old guards are just the tip of the iceberg, and the damage is much more widespread.  Contagion: Losses have bled over into the rest of the tech industry as well, with almost all mega caps suffering big losses. Microsoft is down -25%, Apple -21%, Nvidia -43%, Cisco 23%, Taiwan Semiconductor is down -38%, and the list goes on. Leading the way and overarching the entire ecosystem is the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which is down -30% on the year and leading all major indexes in losses.  Future worries: Sectors that have dominated one cycle don't usually dominate the next one. What was once a beloved high-growth sector has now become a maturing one, and investors are wary that haughty growth may not continue in an already contracting environment. It's easy to multiply a smaller revenue, but not so much so with a mega one. The outlook  Most analysts still expect the sales and revenue growth of these giants to beat out pessimistic expectations in the next couple of years, but the numbers will probably never be as gaudy as they once were. It's not the end of the world for tech, but more so just a natural and inevitable shift. There's no doubt the sector will remain a stalwart of the market for years to come, but the growth expectations surrounding them must undergo a pruning. Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it: Growth vs. Value Investing Investing Basics 7 mins

FEATURING FARMTOGETHER Add farmland to your portfolio with Rose Rock Pecan Orchard. Rose Rock is an off-market opportunity to purchase 292 plantable acres that will be developed to pecans. The property is located roughly 85 miles northwest of Dallas and 105 miles south of Oklahoma City, along Oklahoma's southern border in the heart of pecan country. Target Net IRR: 12.0% Target Net Cash Yield: 6.1% Net Equity Multiple: 3.1x Target Hold: 11 years Minimum Investment: $15k Invest today!

MONEY TIP Dodging the Rising Cost of Home Insurance While the housing market has been white hot the last couple of years, it's given rise to price jumps in all its underpinnings too. From little things like heating and repairs to big items like the mortgage and insurance, homeowners have been doling out more cash every month for all the necessities of owning a home.  Up 9.3% from January 2021, insurance premiums might be the worst of the bunch, now costing homeowners $2,777 per year on average. And states like Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma are averaging more than $4,000 annually.  A few ways to ease the burden The basics — bundle: This is perhaps the most common advice out there, but it rings true. The average bundler saves about 14% when they combine coverages, and some insurers offer even more. The key here is to make sure you're not compromising on your coverage to a detriment for those savings.  Switch around: Ask your insurer for hidden discounts that can oftentimes come from something as simple as installing water-use sensors. Look into competitors too. Many insurance companies will offer a set savings bonus for homeowners who switch, and you can often take those offers back to your current provider.  Make sacrifices: Cutting coverage isn't always a good idea, especially as home prices have risen. However, there are savings to be made in the way of raising your deductible, reducing coverage on home contents, or eliminating miscellaneous coverages you might have and not need. Reducing coverage within your "other structures" bucket is an often overlooked way to save. Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it: Buying Home Insurance Housing 6 mins

🌊 BY THE WAY 🎁 Answer: About 60% of Americans plan to buy fewer gifts and to purchase presents for fewer people as inflation hits, according to a Harris poll. A similar percentage is reducing holiday travel. And more than one-third are skipping gift-giving completely due to cost (FA Mag) 🗓️ 'Early filers' should wait to submit their tax return in 2023, the IRS warns—here's why (CNBC) 💰 ICYMI. Tax breaks before the year is up (Finny) ⚜️ Spain just announced a digital nomad visa for remote workers (apartment therapy) 🏡 Inside the rent-to-own startup that's putting aspiring homeowners in financial jeopardy (Fast Company) ⚖️ Finny lesson of the day. We've covered this before, but it's back as we soon close out the tax year: Capital Gains & Losses Taxes 7 mins

How did you like today's newsletter? (Please vote only once.) 🔥 Great, enjoyed it | 😐 Okay, but you can do better | 👎 Not interesting

Finny is on a mission to simply finances & benefits for employees. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin Payne & Carla Olson. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice. Please support our brand sponsor⁠—FarmTogether—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback about this edition or anything else, please email us and we'll be sure to respond. © Finny 2022. All rights reserved. 700 El Camino Real, Suite 120, Menlo Park, CA 94025 Unsubscribe Preferences Privacy Policy Terms of Service

🦉 Living sensibly in 2023

+ deflating financial bubbles takes effort & there aren't enough remote jobs

December 15, 2022 View online | Sign up TOGETHER WITH Happy Thursday. Based on a recent CNBC survey, what was the top action Americans took in 2022 to build their wealth? a. negotiate a higher salary, b. start a side hustle, c. invest in the stock market. 🌊 Check below for the answer. Here are today's money topics: The deflating financial bubbles  Is living sensibly the goal for 2023? There aren't enough remote jobs to go around

ECONOMY The Deflating Financial Bubbles Keeping the economy in check is like trying to un-stack a perfectly balanced house of cards. It's almost impossible to do without toppling the entire thing — it requires a little poise and a lot of luck.  That's what the Federal Reserve has been tasked with this year — deflating some bubbles without popping them. Thus far, they've done a remarkable job of this, but how? Steady hands Stocks: Bulls enjoyed massive plunder throughout 2020 and 2021 as indexes soared. Between the first trading day of 2020 and the last of '21, the S&P 500 gained 47%, the Nasdaq 73%, and the Dow 36%, with hundreds of individual and meme-related stocks pushing much higher as valuations ballooned. Despite the pain, 2022 has brought a necessary correction across the board, patently humbling high-multiple tech stocks specifically.  Housing: Interest rates were at their floor, savings balances were high, and inventory was low. Home prices rose accordingly, up 31% in just 2 years. And while home prices are still rising (37% overall since Q1 2020), the Fed's rate hikes have contributed to bringing that growth down to a trickle, slowing sales and demand while giving supply some time to catch up. They've tamed the flames without tanking the market and putting homeowners underwater — this isn't 2008.  Budding areas: This year has also managed to expose the nascent crypto world. There have been 7 well-documented crypto bankruptcy blow-ups this year alone, with the latest being FTX, a giant most never expected to fall. While the Fed can't take all the credit, their rate hikes have no doubt created a risk-off environment that's led some players to pull their cards from the crypto space, making it much more costly to do business. Job not done We've made it through the game without stepping on lava, but that doesn't mean the coast is clear. While the Fed has done at least a commendable job in certain areas, there's still an ongoing war with inflation at hand and miles left to go.  Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it: About Recessions Investing Basics 6 mins

FINANCIAL PLANNING Is Living Sensibly the Goal for 2023? The collective goals of a society change over time, usually in the direction of broad trends and in response to recent events. We've experienced a lot of change in recent years, and it seems to have made an impact on us, imprinting itself on the goals of many.  A recent study from Fidelity showed Americans are feeling more trepidation about their finances right now. In 2021, 72% said they expected to be better off in 2022, whereas this year only 65% say the same. Meanwhile, 75% said they were looking to proceed with caution, 43% cite inflation as their top concern, and 49% say they'll try to maintain their pandemic savings habits.  Optimism is out, pragmatism is in, and 2023 looks to be the year of living sensibly.  Get in on the movement Reassess: With the top 3 resolutions for 2023 being saving more, paying off debt, and spending less, goals seem to be shifting toward prudence during these uncertain times. While we'd never encourage you to curtail your dreams, ensuring your goals are sensible is equally important as dreaming big. Now may be a good time to reassess, change, or adjust according to your situation as things have changed.  Contribute: If you invested $500 per month at an 8% return over 30 years, an extra $50 per month would pocket you an additional $67K by the time you retire. The markets have been choppy this year, but there's no better time to invest than the present. In the spirit of sensibility, perhaps the best thing you can do to shore up your future is up your retirement contributions. If you haven't already, make every effort to contribute to your employer match this year, (it's free money) and even max out if you can.  Check your debt: Interest rates are on the rise across the board, and high-interest debt is one of the most prominent victims. If you're carrying a balance, it's important to stay up to date on the rate you're paying as it often increases quietly. Subsequently, let this create a greater sense of urgency for paying down that debt too.  Reduce expenses: Spending less money is a top-voted resolution for 2023, and it might not be such a bad idea. Inflation is still historically high, interest rates are rising, budgets are shrinking, and layoffs are coming. In one way or another, it's likely the ripples of all this will impact us all eventually, so creating some space in your budget is a smart move.  Expand your saving: For similar reasons cited above, it's a better time than ever to expand on your emergency fund and savings. If you only have a month of expenses saved, now's the time to shoot for 3. If you've got 3, go for 6. Beyond that, it's up to your discretion and comfort level, but it never hurts to save a little extra.

FEATURING STACKIN Budgets, like diets, don't work for everyone. Instead, Stackin focuses on helping you do the emotional work of finding what you truly value.  Then, they provide insights to help you understand the connection between your emotions and your money, so you can reach your goals. Start today by taking this money relationship quiz for free on Stackin.

ECONOMY There Aren't Enough Remote Jobs To Go Around The pandemic pushed our inevitable shift toward remote work tendencies into overdrive, and we're now more zealous than ever for that WFH lifestyle.  While it's not idealized by everyone, the facts are that 92% of employees are working remotely at least one day a week, and they want more. Demand for remote positions is through the roof, and employers can't keep up with the applicants.  Get in line The climb: An estimated 26% of Americans are now working from home, up from 5.7% just 4 short years ago. Sixty-eight percent of Americans would prefer to work fully remotely, and 16% of companies are already there.  Discrepancies: Recent data from LinkedIn shows that about 50% of applications submitted on the platform are going to remote jobs, yet only 15% of job postings are for those positions. That divergence has been growing for some time now but took off in the second half of 2021.  The outcome: This is just an anecdotal example, and truthfully the gap between demand and availability for remote work spreads much farther. Economies never reach a permanent equilibrium, and the labor market is no different. It'll take some time to find a resolution here, but there's no doubting the long-term trend and shift toward remote work.

🌊 BY THE WAY 🤓 Answer: While it takes some perseverance to invest in the stock market, that's what 27% of Americans said they did to build their personal wealth—the top wealthbuilding move of 2022. Other popular answers include getting a second job or side hustle (20%) and negotiating a higher salary at their primary job (15%) (CNBC) 📈 Fed raises key rate by half-point and signals more to come (AP News) 📊 ICYMI. Budgeting tips crafted for 2023 (Finny) 🤢 World is 'driven by envy,' not 'greed'—Billionaire Charlie Munger (CNBC) 📲 US government charges 8 social media influencers over alleged pump-and-dump scheme (CNN) 🧼 Finny lesson of the day. Given the higher volatility in the stock market this year, review the IRS wash sale rule if you've made any trades: What's the Wash Sale Rule? Investing Basics 6 mins

How did you like today's newsletter? (Please vote only once.) 🔥 Great, enjoyed it | 😐 Okay, but you can do better | 👎 Not interesting

Finny is on a mission to simply finances & benefits for employees. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin Payne & Carla Olson. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice. Please support our brand sponsor⁠—Stackin—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback about this edition or anything else, please email us and we'll be sure to respond. © Finny 2022. All rights reserved. 736 Paloma Ave, Burlingame CA 94010 Unsubscribe Preferences Privacy Policy Terms of Service