Tuesday, November 29, 2022

📉 Is the pain of loss greater than the joy of gain?

November 29, 2022 View online | Sign up
Finny
Gist
TOGETHER WITH Finny

Good day, it's Giving Tuesday. Can you guess how much people in the US donated on #GivingTuesday in 2021? a. $270 million, b. $1.2 billion, c. $2.7 billion. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Today's money topics:

  • Electric vehicles are going mainstream
  • The pitfalls of loss aversion 
  • Don't forget to use your FSA

MARKET OUTLOOK

Electric Vehicles Are Going Mainstream

Fossil fuels have been set on a collision course with renewable green energy sources for decades now, and the outcome seems almost fixed — the shift toward green energy is unavoidable. 

But there's one aspect of the economy that's recently risen to the forefront of this duel: electric cars. It's no longer Ford vs. Chevy. It's now gas vs. electric, and it looks like the underdog might soon be on top. 

EVs rise to prominence

  • Walk to run: EV sales growth has been very slow prior to the last couple of years, but began to tick up in 2020 and 2021 as recent data shows EVs accounting for 3.6% of overall vehicle sales. And most projections have EVs taking up over 50% of new car sales by 2030. 
  • Overall growth: The global EV market was valued at $178.5B in 2021, but it's projected to top $1.1T by 2030 with a 22.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The market for alternative fuel vehicles is growing too and is expected to reach over $1T in value by 2030. All of this growth chips away at the market share traditional vehicles used to hold. 
  • New regulations: Perhaps the most powerful of catalysts is the looming regulation around gas-powered cars. The US plans to stop all gas car sales by 2035, and plenty of other states plan to implement their own bans as well. Elsewhere, Norway, South Korea, and others plan to start as soon as 2025, and tens of other nations are also in line to place similar bans in the years to follow. 
  • Newcomers: Although Tesla was an early mover, the EV market has been welcoming several new viable competitors to the market in recent years. Aside from specialty manufacturers, even the traditional giants have stopped resisting and begun rolling out their EV models. With growing acceptance, more manufacturing bandwidth, and a healthy dose of competition, an EV future seems inevitable.
  • The big picture: Simply put, it's expansion and growth for the EV industry. But there's also the changing of the guard from the old to new will test automotive giants' ability to transition. There's also the obvious bleed-over growth that will find its way into relevant partner industries, like battery producers, utility providers, delivery and logistics, even R&D and core commodities like copper.

INVESTING

The Pitfalls of Loss Aversion

If the stock market was the weather, 2022 has been a storm, and it's hard to blame anyone for trying to seek some shelter from the elements. It's a rational thing to do, after all. We have to protect ourselves and our investments from the threats that linger — or do we? 

While it might seem logical to search for stability during a volatile bear market like this, what if our precautionary actions are actually detrimental to our portfolio? Data says these precautionary actions might be a bad idea. 

No choice is a choice

  • A rough year: Investors' tendency toward safety lately no doubt stems from a down and choppy market. Indexes like the S&P 500 are down 17% year-to-date, but that doesn't quite paint the picture. A more sobering reality is the fact that average 401(k) balances are down 23% over the last year, and IRAs are down similarly — representing thousands in losses.

  • Recent moves: 18 of 21 (85%) trading days in October saw investors favoring fixed-income investments, up from an already high 73% of trading days so far in 2022. Stable value and money market funds made up 81% and 16%, respectively, of net investor inflows during the month. 
  • Temporary relief: The pain of losing $100 is often greater than the joy of gaining it, right? While safe moves like this may bring comfort in the short term, they can shave off thousands in portfolio growth over the long run. Prioritizing loss aversion over consistency and "toughing it out" is a primary contributor to individual investors underperforming the markets. Heck, just ask Bob
  • Changing course: Making a change to your long-term portfolio to adjust for market conditions is often much like traffic. By the time we find an alternate route and take it, we would've been farther ahead had we just bitten the bullet and stayed the course.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

FEATURING CHARITYVEST

Starting a DAF with Charityvest means that you can be both tax smart and purposeful about your lifelong giving journey. 

There are no minimums to open an account and low fee investing options so your giving balance can grow over time. 

Open your DAF today!

WORK BENEFITS

Don't Forget Your FSA

Not to be confused with the HSA, the FSA (flexible spending account) was created back in 1978 by Congress in an effort to give employees more options and flexibility when it came to covering their medical expenses. 

An FSA allows an employee to contribute pre-tax dollars, up to $2,850, to cover their qualified medical or dependent care expenses for the year. 

What to know about FSAs

  • An overview: FSAs come in a few different flavors. First, we have the traditional healthcare FSA (HCFSA), which is intended for a broad range of healthcare expenses. Next, there's the limited expense HCFSA (LEX HCFSA) for health savings account (HSA) holders, which can be used only for dental and vision care expenses. And lastly, the dependent care FSA can help working parents pay for childcare-related expenses while getting a tax break for it.
  • The basics: FSAs allow employees to contribute pre-tax dollars up to their contribution limits to cover their qualified medical or dependent care expenses for a given year. 2023 limits are $3,050 for the Health care FSA (HCFSA) and the Limited Expense HCFSA (LEX HCFSA) and $2,500 for a dependent care FSA. Contributions are deducted from your salary pre-tax and in most cases, you'll need to keep your receipts to get reimbursed. 
  • Use it or lose it: FSAs are flexible, supplemental savings accounts, but they do have their limitations. Any funds that are left unused will be returned to your employer at the end of the year. Because of this, employees reportedly forfeit upwards of $1B annually in unused funds even with 36% of companies allowing a grace period. 
  • Eligible expenses: FSAs can be utilized primarily for medical-related expenses like OTC products, dental, vision, and other qualified needs. The list of included expenses is now longer than ever, but account holders can also choose to spend FSA money on often overlooked medical purchases too — even simple things like covid tests, hand sanitizer, masks, and more.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Bilibili (+22.8%) as the China-based video-sharing website reported better-than-expected financial figures in this latest quarter. Daily and monthly active users increased by 25% from last year.
  • Hong Kong and Shanghai markets rallied with the Chinese government reporting a decline in Covid infections within mainland China. US-listed China-based companies are rallying around that sentiment: RLX Technology (+13.4%), Lufax Holding (+12.1%), and Zai Lab (+11.2%).
  • Apple (-1.6%) after a stock price drop of 2.6% yesterday following reports that unrest at China's Foxconn iPhone factory could result in a shortfall of 6 million iPhone Pros produced.
  • S&P 500 Index (-0.5%) to $3,943.18 (1D)
  • Bitcoin (+1%) to $16,375.50 (1D)
  • Ethereum (+3.2%) to $1,208.34 (1D)

This commentary is as of 8:45 am PDT. 

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • 🎁 Answer: In 2021, Giving Tuesday raised $2.7 billion in total donations in the United States. This amount was 9% more than the previous year (Investopedia)
  • 💸 Consumers lay out $1,600 yearly for health-care products that FSAs (flexible spending accounts) could have covered (CNBC)
  • ❤️ ICYMI. Do good & get a tax break — donor-advised funds (Finny)
  • 💼 100 UK companies sign up for four-day week with no loss of pay (The Guardian)
  • 🔋 The price of your Tesla Model Y varies by more than $60,000 depending on where you are in the world (Bloomberg)

  • 💵 Finny lesson of the day: It's always good practice to take a peek at your work pay stub every now and then to ensure that you're withholding the right amount from your pay:

Finny is a financial wellness platform on a mission to make your money work for you. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin Payne, Carla Olson, Chihee Kim. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice.

Please support our brand sponsor⁠—Charityvest—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback for us, please contact us.

© Finny 2022. All rights reserved.
736 Paloma Ave, Burlingame CA 94010

Friday, November 25, 2022

Digital bills due November 25, 2022.69078779 of item

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For order questions, call the number on your invoice.

Thanks.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

💰 How much should you be saving?

November 24, 2022 View online | Sign up
Finny
Gist
TOGETHER WITH Finny

Happy Thanksgiving 🦃 for those celebrating it today. In 1949, the typical single-family home in the US was 909 square feet in size. Can you guess what the average single-family home size in the US was in 2021 (in square feet)? a. 2,480, b. 2,880, c. 3,280. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Our topics for today:

  • The future of the mortgage market
  • How much in savings should I have? 
  • The difference that 1% can make

*No Movers & Shakers today as the US stock market is closed in observance of Thanksgiving

HOUSING

The Future of the Mortgage Market

Over the last 15 years, the mortgage market has been cruising uncharted waters. Despite how normal that environment eventually felt to us, it was a historical deviation, and something we may not ever return to.  

After a year of inflation, rate hikes, and record increases in home prices that lead to equally steep drops in affordability, mortgage rates are finally sobering up and climbing to their former glory. 

Where do we go from here?

  • Historically: Our shortsightedness can easily lead us to feel as if mortgage rates are high again, but is that really true? The current average rate for the prototypical 30-year fixed loan is now 6.61%, still a nudge below the historical average of 7.76%. 
  • Recency bias: Homebuyers have been spoiled lately. Rates stooped as low as 2.8% just late last year, and have risen 135% since to their current levels. It's that rapid increase that creates the shock we're feeling. 
  • As for the future: The most pessimistic outlook put forth by the Economic Forecast Agency (EFA) places rates near 11% by the end of 2023, but most projections call for a landing between 5.5% and 7%. 
  • Home buyer impacts: 7% interest rates aren't that bad, that is until you combine them with record home prices. Although existing home sales have continued to fall, the median home sale price increased again in late October to $454,900. Another increase isn't what prospective buyers wanted to see, but a slowdown in that growth rate is entirely welcome.

Still looking to buy a home?

They say the best time to get started is yesterday but is that still true for buying a house? The answer is that it depends on the purpose of your purchase. If you're searching for a house to call home for decades to come, it matters a lot less when you bought it or what happens to the market value. What's important is making sure it fits your budget, and not out-leveraging yourself in the event of a downturn. 

For investors though, the equation becomes more complex, and the answer depends a lot on your philosophy and investment plans. In this scenario, you have to consider both the short and long-term future of the housing market and how that plays into your ability to turn a profit.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

BUDGETING & SAVING

How Much Savings Should I Have For My Age?

They say comparison is the thief of joy, but if that's the case then it must also be the giver in some cases. Comparing yourself to others your age in terms of how good you are at saving money can serve as validation or a motivator, but both are positives to the financially woke.

Fidelity recommends savers stash away 3x their annual salaries by the age of 40

So at a $50,000 salary, that's $150,000 saved. A saver who starts at age 22 with that $50,000 salary would need to save a little over $8,000 per year to achieve this by 40. That comes out to a bit over 16% of your annual gross income. 

They also recommend that...

  • by 50, you should have 6 times your salary saved.
  • by 60, you should have 8 times your salary saved.
  • by 67, you should have 10 times your salary saved.

How should you prioritize your savings?

There are two types of saving that hold priority over everything else: retirement and emergency funds. They serve two different purposes, one is an insurance policy while the other is a full income replacement strategy, and everyone's life has different needs.

So, here are some general rules to apply that can help:

  • Establish an emergency fund of 3-6 months of expenses first, as a safety net.
  • Put away 10-15% of your gross income at minimum for retirement planning, and more if you wish. The later you wait, the higher you'll need to adjust to meet your retirement goals. 
  • Contribute to your company's 401k, especially if they offer an employer match. It may seem like a small percentage, but that free money compounds over decades. An employer match you aren't taking full advantage of is like not accepting free money.
  • Based on your income, consider also opening an IRA or Roth IRA. Go for an IRA if you plan to withdraw the funds at a later date when your tax bracket is lower, and consider a Roth if you predict your tax burden will be higher in the future than it is now.

FEATURING STACKIN

Budgets, like diets, don't work for everyone. Instead, Stackin focuses on helping you do the emotional work of finding what you truly value. 

Then, they provide insights to help you understand the connection between your emotions and your money, so you can reach your goals.

Start today by taking this money relationship quiz for free on Stackin.

INVESTING

The Difference That 1% Can Make

Planning for retirement is an inexact science for all of us, but one thing that's a constant truth is that the more you invest now, the more you'll have later. 

Prices have always gone up, and the cost of retirement goes up with it. This has been exceedingly true the last couple of years as we've endured historic levels of inflation and economic uncertainty, making it more important than ever to sock away more dollars for the future. 

A drop in the bucket matters

  • Recent changes: Thanks to inflation, the IRS recently made some changes to our retirement account contribution limits to account for the rising cost of living. Work-sponsored retirement plan contribution limits are going up by $2,000 to $22,500 for 2023, up from $20,500 in 2022 for those under 50. And the additional contribution allowed for those over 50 is increasing by $1,000 to $7,500 in 2023, up from $6,500 in 2022.
  • Increase your contribution regularly: A recent study by Fidelity showed that for those not already maxing out their contributions, increasing your investments by just 1% annually can make a substantial difference come retirement. While a 1% increase may not seem like much (and that's precisely the point!), that additional 1% can make a big difference decades later. For example, a 35-year-old making $60K could potentially accrue an extra $85K by age 67. 
  • Automate it: If your plan allows for it, setting up an automatic annual increase is the ideal hands-off approach to take here. And it takes only seconds to do.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • 📐 Answer: 2,480 square feet. While U.S. homes are getting larger, on the whole, they still vary drastically depending on the location. See the average home size by state (Visual Capitalist)
  • 🍕 Gen Zers trading turkey for pizza as Thanksgiving prices surge (New York Post)
  • 📉 Investor home purchases tumble 30% as rising mortgage rates cool housing market (Fox Business)
  • 🍑 ICYMI. Has the market bottomed? (Finny)
  • 🏙️ The 10 U.S. cities where the first year of homeownership is the cheapest (CNBC)
  • 🛁 Finny lesson of the day. As the markets continue to whipsaw as they have all year if you've sold an investment at a loss, then bought it back within a short time window, please beware of the IRS Wash Sale Rule: 

Finny is a financial wellness platform on a mission to make your money work for you. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin Payne, Carla Olson, Chihee Kim. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice.

Please support our brand sponsor⁠—Stackin—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback for us, please contact us. Share this Gist

© Finny 2022. All rights reserved.
736 Paloma Ave, Burlingame CA 94010

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

🕘 Things rarely go according to plan

November 22, 2022 View online | Sign up
Finny
Gist
TOGETHER WITH Finny

Good Tuesday to you all. Can you guess what's the highest US inflation rate on record? a. 13.7%, b. 23.7%, c. 33.7%. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Here are the money topics for today:

  • Inflation falls, markets record rally
  • Hoarding cash at the wrong times
  • Student loan forgiveness update

ECONOMY

Inflation Falls, Markets Record Rally

Economists and consumers alike have been awaiting inflation reports like lottery results all year. 

Likewise, investors have also begun to use this news as a buy/sell indicator. An inflation report that yields positive results often triggers a green wave in the markets, whereas the opposite can be said about a sour outcome.  

The latest happenings

  • CPI report: The latest CPI report missed the mark in a good way. Economists expected a 7.9% number but were instead greeted with a 7.7% year-over-year increase. It might not sound like much, but those two-tenths meant a lot. Core inflation also rose at a slower pace, down to 6.3% from 6.6% in September's report. During the month, inflation rose by 0.4% — shunning a 0.6% projection. 
  • Into the numbers: What items were adding to and subtracting from inflation? Detractors include energy services (-1.2%), piped gas services (-4.6%), commodities (-0.4%), new vehicles (-2.4%), used vehicles (-0.7%), and medical care (-0.6%). Stubborn price points remained in areas like fuel, shelter, and food. 
  • Markets' reaction: This news meant a lot to the markets. Indexes enjoyed their best rally in over two years with the Dow rising 1,200 points, the S&P 500 moving up 5%, and the Nasdaq jumping by a hefty 7.35% during November 9th's trading session.

We have a way to go

Admittedly, the market's excitement might've been a little short-sighted. While it's great to see inflation consistently receding from our summer peak, inflation is still stubbornly high, and there's still a long way to go. 

There's also a growing expectation that the Fed will trigger an economic downturn as it aggressively raises interest rates to catch up with runaway inflation. 

As Jerome Powell summed it up, "It is very premature to be thinking about pausing. When people hear lags, they think about pauses. It's very premature, in my view... we have a way to go."

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

SAVING & INVESTING

Hoarding Cash At The Wrong Times

This year, a lot of people have been saving more money in fear of the red we've seen in the markets and the general uncertainty that abounds.

Recent surveys show that just 1 in 4 people think now is a good time to invest, and a whole 65% say they're keeping more cash out of the markets than they should. 

It's often the case that our base instincts are the exact opposite of what's most beneficial, and it can be very easy to get led astray by those natural inclinations. And the stock market is a prime example of this.

Investors tend to flee when tickers are red and come back when they're green—the exact opposite of a profitable strategy. It's herd mentality at its finest, and a natural reaction that can be overcome. 

Fix it with intentionality

  • Save for the right reasons: If you're someone who's keeping money out of the markets because you've been dedicating it to building up an emergency fund or some short-term concrete expense, that's a good reason to be hoarding cash. On the contrary, if you've already established those baselines for yourself and you're still holding out, that could be costly. 
  • Invest for the decades, not days: Many of us are scared off from investing during tumultuous markets like this one, mostly due to just how bad and uncertain it looks. But, what's important to remember is that you're not investing in this market, you're investing for 5, 10, 20, even 30 or more years from now, and it's compounding that will help drive those returns higher the longer you invest consistently. 
  • Don't miss out on a good sale, right? When we find an item on sale, we see it as saving money, but when we see stocks on sale, we see it as a potential for loss. Fear of loss has been found to outweigh the potential of gain in the mind, and this makes a lot of sense as to why we're so fearful of down markets. The reality is that millions are made in recoveries, and investing when everyone is fearful is likely to benefit us in the long run.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

FEATURING CHARITYVEST

Starting a DAF with Charityvest means that you can be both tax smart and purposeful about your lifelong giving journey. 

There are no minimums to open an account and low fee investing options so your giving balance can grow over time. 

Open your DAF today!

MANAGING DEBT

Student Loan Forgiveness Update

Over 3 months ago now, the Biden administration formally announced plans to forgive up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt per borrower — with the hopes of rolling out the program by year's end and knocking out over $500M worth of debt. 

Things rarely go according to plan in politics though, and this is a prime example. Biden's forgiveness plan is currently tied up in federal court, with some judges ruling the order unconstitutional. While the administration is continuing to try and see the plan through, everything is on pause at the moment. 

What to do in the meantime

  • Prepare to apply: Applications for loan forgiveness are currently on hold while the legal and political matters get sorted out on the backend. When or if the application center will reopen remains unknown at this time, but you should still be preparing to apply by gathering your income and personal information, and have it ready when the time comes. 
  • Keep making payments if: If you were expecting to receive less loan forgiveness ($10K-$20K) than your outstanding balance, it probably makes sense to keep making payments if you owe more than that and can still afford to do so. The student loan moratorium ends on December 31st, after which payments will again be due and interest accrued. 
  • Get your finances in order: Student debt forgiveness is, unsurprisingly, a pretty political matter. Because of this, it was always far from a certainty, and that uncertainty is playing out in real time right now. This is all out of our control, but the best thing we can do in the meantime is to get organized and have the rest of our finances (and debt) in order.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

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🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (+15.7%) after the apparel retailer reported unexpected profit & revenue for the current quarter; it saw a jump in sales as consumers went back to work and social events. 
  • American Eagle (+18.1%) stock is also trading higher after reporting better-than-expected quarterly sales (thanks to high demand for dresses) and inventory management improvements.
  • Dollar Tree (-9%) on lower guidance for the full year, despite beating profit and revenue estimates for the current quarter.
  • S&P 500 Index (+0.7%) to $3,979.31 (1D)
  • Bitcoin (+2.7%) to $16,182.50 (1D)
  • Ethereum (+2.2%) to $1,130.15 (1D)

This commentary is as of 8:30 am PDT.  

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • 🔥 Answer: US inflation reached a record high inflation rate of 23.7% in June 1920 and a record low of -15.8% in June of 1921 (Trading Economics)
  • 🎊 Get ready for the most expensive holiday travel season ever (CNN)
  • 📈 ICYMI. Inflation & the rule of 72 (Finny)
  • Coinbase shares tumble as investors fear contagion from FTX collapse (CNBC)
  • 📝 Finny lesson of the day. Every employee is required to fill out Form W-4 so that the IRS (Internal Revenue Services) can determine how much in taxes should be withheld from an employee's paycheck. With 2023 right around the corner, it's worth reviewing your form as it could help your monthly cash flow. And since the IRS updated the form in 2020, update your form if you haven't since:

Finny is a financial wellness platform on a mission to make your money work for you. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin Payne, Carla Olson, Chihee Kim. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice.

Please support our brand sponsor⁠—Charityvest, Composer—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback for us, please contact us.

© Finny 2022. All rights reserved.
736 Paloma Ave, Burlingame CA 94010