Over the last 15 years, the mortgage market has been cruising uncharted waters. Despite how normal that environment eventually felt to us, it was a historical deviation, and something we may not ever return to. After a year of inflation, rate hikes, and record increases in home prices that lead to equally steep drops in affordability, mortgage rates are finally sobering up and climbing to their former glory. Where do we go from here? - Historically: Our shortsightedness can easily lead us to feel as if mortgage rates are high again, but is that really true? The current average rate for the prototypical 30-year fixed loan is now 6.61%, still a nudge below the historical average of 7.76%.
- Recency bias: Homebuyers have been spoiled lately. Rates stooped as low as 2.8% just late last year, and have risen 135% since to their current levels. It's that rapid increase that creates the shock we're feeling.
- As for the future: The most pessimistic outlook put forth by the Economic Forecast Agency (EFA) places rates near 11% by the end of 2023, but most projections call for a landing between 5.5% and 7%.
- Home buyer impacts: 7% interest rates aren't that bad, that is until you combine them with record home prices. Although existing home sales have continued to fall, the median home sale price increased again in late October to $454,900. Another increase isn't what prospective buyers wanted to see, but a slowdown in that growth rate is entirely welcome.
Still looking to buy a home? They say the best time to get started is yesterday but is that still true for buying a house? The answer is that it depends on the purpose of your purchase. If you're searching for a house to call home for decades to come, it matters a lot less when you bought it or what happens to the market value. What's important is making sure it fits your budget, and not out-leveraging yourself in the event of a downturn. For investors though, the equation becomes more complex, and the answer depends a lot on your philosophy and investment plans. In this scenario, you have to consider both the short and long-term future of the housing market and how that plays into your ability to turn a profit. Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it: |