Tuesday, January 4, 2022

πŸ“Š A choppy and unpredictible year is inevitable

January 04, 2022 View online | Sign up
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TOGETHER WITH Finny

Happy new year to you all. Hope your new year is off to a great start! 

The size of the NFT market was $100 million in 2020. Can you guess what it was in 2021? a. $222 million, b. $2.2 billion, c. $22 billion. Follow the wave πŸŒŠ below for the answer. 

Here are the money topics for today:

  • 2022 could be a choppy year for investors
  • The SPACs outlook
  • Millennials average how much on dates?
  • The 5 most epic financial events of 2021 according to you 
Forward this Gist

MARKETS & INVESTING

2022 could be a choppy year for investors

The only thing that's certain is uncertainty, and surprises are a given. Each and every year comes with its own unique set of unforeseen events that end up factoring into the economy and the markets. 

The reality of unpredictability is baked into investing, but we don't allow this fact to stop us from trying to forecast the future in an effort to be better prepared. There's a fine balance to be struck between expecting the unexpected and making rational projections with the information available to us. So, here goes 2022.

Expecting a little chop ahead 

Usually, when an airplane pilot warns passengers that there may be a little choppiness ahead, it's because of some locally irregular, or uneven, air. That's a pretty valid metaphor for what the markets seem to be entering now, a uniquely irregular pocket created by some unique circumstances over the last couple years.

The star of the show

Reasons for this uncertainty vary in number depending on who you ask. Regardless though, one thing seems to remain at the center: the pandemic whiplash. After the markets emphatically fell during the pandemic's onset, they proceeded to rebound just as buoyantly and in an elongated manner that rippled throughout 2021.

Why? Real factors. Stimulus checks, quantitative easing, lower rates, an increase of individual investors, expectations of a strong rebound, and eagerness to buy the dip as investing became more and more popular throughout the year.

As that period of propping up and newbie enthusiasm wanes, the Federal Reserve is simultaneously expecting a few rate hikes in 2022 to help combat rising inflation numbers. As a result, the market is experiencing a bit of an existential crisis, the kind you might get after a bout of binge spending, asking itself if this perpetual push upward is really warranted.

Other factors

Decidedly though, this factor has its counterparts and isn't the sole reason for volatility concerns heading into this year. Other variables worth considering encompass things like a growing global energy crisis, labor shortages, lingering supply chain issues, heightened corporate debt levels, and of course, perpetuated covid variants. 

All of these things harbor the ability to threaten both US and global markets because you can't toss a stone or two in the economic lake without making some waves. How these headwinds will unfold remains to be seen, and their implications for the markets are something we might not know until it happens.

INVESTING

The SPACs outlook

Special purpose acquisition companies have become somewhat of a trend over the last couple of years, but they're actually not that new. The first SPAC was created back in 1993 when GKN Securities developed a template for these so-called "blank check" companies. 

But, they were nowhere near as popular back then as they've become today. The number of SPAC IPOs has been boosted exponentially, jumping from 59 ($13.6bn total raised) in 2019 to 613 ($161.7bn) in 2021.

Wait, what exactly is a SPAC again?

SPAC is an acronym for "special purpose acquisition company." These companies are also commonly known as "blank check companies" that are publicly traded shell corporations created to acquire a private company and take it public without going through the more onerous, traditional IPO process.

SPACs are formed by sponsors, typically management groups and venture capitalists, and usually proceed through two different stages. The first is to register the offering and sell redeemable securities for cash, primarily to big-ticket investors like hedge funds and other institutions. Second, they proceed to seek out, negotiate, and acquire a business in the two-year time frame following IPO.

If the blank check company fails to identify a target company and complete their acquisition within two years, the SPAC is to be liquidated. The funds raised would be withdrawn from the trust and redeemed by investors at their pro-rata price, which is usually $10.

Still an emerging trend

This recent boom of growth in the demand for SPACs and their popularity has led to some understandable concern for the legitimacy and validity of SPACs. 

In fact, there are over 100 active lawsuits against sponsors as claimants seek resolution for a variety of alleged failures, including transparency, conflicts of interest and mismanagement. 2021 saw a 420% increase in securities class actions filed against SPAC-related companies from the year prior.

With so many filings, many are wondering about the credibility of both the management groups involved and the soundness of the private businesses being acquired.

Have SPACs grown too fast? Possibilities for the future

  • Cooling off: More often than not, most things tend to regress toward the mean over time. So, although SPACs have increased 10x in popularity over the last couple years, that doesn't necessarily mean this trend will continue into the future. We're already seeing rising levels of apprehension around them as investors continue to learn and adapt. In fact, after the Q1 surge of companies going public via SPACs, the figures dropped off in subsequent quarters through year-end. 
  • Evolving further: SPACs are just another method of going public, and yet another financial vehicle in a pool of seemingly millions. These things are constantly changing and evolving, and we see that even now with the increasing popularity of direct listings alongside them. The future of SPACs might very well be a mix of what we have now as the process of going public continues to adjust. 
  • Regulation: There will be greater scrutiny from regulators and ongoing litigation from investors. As the SEC is already ramping up its enforcement actions, sponsors are being advised by their lawyers to more thoroughly vet a potential target's business and to increase transparency around conflicts of interest and other issues that could spark lawsuits. That may be why we're seeing a growing number of SPAC deals falling through before the listed shell merges with its acquisition target.
  • Rebranding: And because SPACs are still in their early days, it makes sense we'll see a few bad apples that will bring some needed adjustments. While they may be painted as risky, "easy money" assets by nay-sayers, it's entirely possible that SPACs will become more refined over time, and undergo a deserved rebranding as a result.

For now though, the SPAC market will likely continue to provide an attractive avenue to bring private companies public, although getting deals done may be getting harder for sponsors. But remember, not all SPACs are created equal, and if you are considering buying, we'll state the obvious: understand your risk tolerance and do your homework.

πŸ’‘Need a refresher on fundamental analysis? If so, take this microlesson on the topic:

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LOVE & MONEY

Millennials average how much on a first date?

They say comparison is the thief of joy, but if that's the case, then it must also be the giver in some cases. So, if you're looking to feel a little better (or worse) about how much you've been spending on first dates, look no further than the data from this survey

The Balance took it upon themselves to survey 1,000 Americans ages 18-40 that are currently in the market for a partner, asking them all the probing, often taboo money questions about dating that we're all dying to know the real answers to.

The biggest takeaway? Average dates come out to a nice $69.

Here are a few other parting thoughts since we're on the topic of dating & money:

  • Going dutch is in: 62% of participants said they split the check sometimes, and this has become an increasingly popular perspective over time as the world continues to progress toward a hopefully more equitable place for everyone. It's not right or wrong to split the bill though, and ultimately it comes down to your interpersonal arrangement. 
  • It's not only about the date: When it comes to love, it's often best not to keep an account on your partner. Sure, maybe you paid for the date, but maybe they bought you a shirt. Maybe you paid for fuel, maybe they paid for parking and dinner. The accounts might not always balance perfectly, but is that really what it's about?
  • Dating is a situational thing: Different pairs of people come together with their own unique values and financial situations. One person may be an intern while the other is salaried, one might prefer to pay, while the other wants to be paid for. The bottom line is this: communication and compatibility are key, and there's no right answer. 

REVIEW OF 2021

The 5 most epic financial events in 2021 according to you

The past 2 years have been madness. Covid took the world by storm, our lives reshuffled, companies were left paralyzed and our governments scrambled. And just when we thought things were turning around, the omicron variant emerged. When will this ever end? Probably never. 

So we'll roll with the punches and take a look back at 2021 at some of the crazy epic things that happened in the financial markets last year, according to you all. Thanks to those of you who shared your opinions on this!

  1. Over 35% of all US dollars ever printed by the US government were printed in 2021. Yes, the USD was being handed out like shopping vouchers. Many talking heads say this will lead to hyperinflation, reflation, stagflation. How will it pan out? Time will tell.
  2. Companies like AMC, GME and Hertz who were on the verge of bankruptcy suddenly saw huge spikes in their share prices. This wasn't about investing on the fundamentals but rather the power that a band of retail investors can wield against the establishment (i.e., Wall Street, hedge funds). And the movement is here to stay.
  3. Mainstreaming of crypto... and NFTs? NFTs kind of came out of nowhere, and then one of them set a new record by selling for $69 million. The NFT market hit $22 billion in 2021, compared to $100 million in 2020. 
  4. Rivian, an electric truck maker that went public in November with barely any revenue, was briefly the 3rd largest automaker by market capitalization. It was also briefly worth more than almost 90% of S&P 500 companies, including stocks like Goldman Sachs, Boeing, Citigroup, Caterpillar, and Starbucks. 
  5. Evergrande, one of the biggest property developers in China, has problems paying its debt obligation and it's really a global matter. $19 billion in international bonds are in cross-default after missing December deadlines to pay coupons. Evergrande has more than $300 billion in liabilities. Will they be too big to fail?

πŸ₯‚ Cheers to another inevitably unpredictable year!

ASHU'S CORPORATE CORNER

Today's Movers & Shakers

  • Foot Locker (-3.9%) was downgraded by JPM Securities to underweight due to stiffer competition and cost pressures
  • Under Armour (+2.5%) was upgraded by Baird as they project a cyclical recovery in earnings from the retailer
  • Warner Music (-4%) fell after reports that Access Industries sold 8.6 million shares
  • Apple (+0.4%) after being the first US company to cross the $3 trillion market cap yesterday
  •  Ford (+1.4%) will reopen requests for purchase orders for F-150 Lighting electric pickup trucks; it had shut it down previously due to overwhelming demand 
  • Coca Cola (+1%) was upgraded by Guggenheim to "buy" due to better than expected on-premises sales and emerging markets sales
  • Toyota (+2.5%) will launch its own automotive operating system by 2021; this AOS will be able to handle tasks like autonomous driving 
  • Blackbaud (+13.3%), a cloud s/w firm, said that it will acquire social impact tech firm EVERFI in a deal worth $750 million in cash & stock

This commentary is as of 9:04 am EDT.

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • Answer: The NFT market reached $22bn in 2021 as the craze turns digital images into assets (The Guardian)
  • πŸ“± If you got a new iPhone 13 over the holidays, change these 5 settings (Inc.)
  • 🧐 A bite worth reading. Is fintech in a bubble? (Finny Bites)
  • Finny lesson of the day: Understanding the IRS wash sale rule can prevent you from unknowingly invalidating your booked losses, resulting in more taxes owed. It's 6 minutes and quiz-based. Every correct answer earns you 10 Dibs or gold coins on Finny, then redeem them for rewards.

Finny is a personal finance education start-up on a mission to make your money work for you. We offer a personalized learning experience through bite-size, jargon-free lessons, money trends & insights and investing tools.

The Gist is Finny's twice a week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice. The editorial team: Chihee KimAustin Payne. Ashu's Corporate Corner is brought to you by Ashu Singh.

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