Plus: ChatGPT’s Lead Is Shrinking as Gemini Surges

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more 📹 90% of People Can’t Tell Real Video From AI Plus: ChatGPT’s Lead Is Shrinking as Gemini Surges Yaro Celis Jan 26   READ IN APP   Gemini is quickly closing the gap with ChatGPT. Backed by Google’s massive distribution, it may only be weeks to challenge the top spot. Plus, AI-generated video is now so realistic that only ~10% of viewers can tell it apart from real footage. At the same time, AI is fundamentally changing how R&D is done, with faster cycles, lower costs, and fewer humans in the loop. More on this today. Stay curious. ChatGPT’s Lead Is Shrinking as Gemini Surges 90% of People Can’t Tell Real Video From AI 🧰 AI Tools AI Is Rewriting Product Development 📚Learning Corner - Coding Subscribe today and get 60% off for a year, free access to our 1,500+ AI tools database, and a complimentary 30-minute personalized consulting session to help you supercharge your AI strategy. Act now as it expires in 3 days… Get 60% off for 1 year 📰 AI News and Trends Louisville, Kentucky, joins a growing number of cities bringing AI to permitting. The town also appointed its first-ever chief AI officer. Micron broke snowy winter ground in New York on Friday to begin building a chip fab that promises to bring up to 50k jobs and much-needed computer memory production to the US. OpenAI is asking steep prices for early ChatGPT ads that could be hard to scale up. Apple plans to unveil a Gemini-powered Siri assistant in February, leveraging Google's AI models to enhance task completion using user data. Meta paused teens’ access to AI characters as it prepares a new version with parental controls. Other Tech News CBP Wants AI-Powered ‘Quantum Sensors’ for Finding Fentanyl in Cars. The U.S. wants 40% of chips made onshore. But quietly, the equipment that makes those chips is moving offshore fast. This gap matters as much as the chips themselves. Chinese companies like WeRide, Baidu, and Pony.ai are scaling robotaxi fleets across the Gulf while US Waymo and Cruise focus on domestic markets. Substack Launches TV App. Creators, Subscribers Decry It As “Veering Away From The Written Word.” Big Tech is facing multiple high-profile social media addiction lawsuits. Meta, TikTok, and YouTube will face parents’ accusations in court this week. Amazon will begin a round of about 14,000 layoffs next week, affecting thousands of corporate employees, to help reduce management layers and bureaucracy. Bringing the total number of laid-off employees to as many as 30,000 in the last 6 months. Netflix has agreed to buy Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming business in an all-cash deal for $27.75 a share. Share Your Payment Processor Is Hiding Your Revenue Leaks Most businesses think churn = cancellations. - That’s wrong. What your payment processor doesn’t clearly show you: Failed payments silently kill 5–9% of revenue Customers at risk before they cancel Which products actually drive churn How much revenue could be recovered every month We built a real-time financial command center on top of Stripe and any payment processor that shows: MRR, Net Revenue, Churned MRR Revenue by product & customer Subscription risk alerts Failed payment recovery tracking Client lifetime value & tenure If you do $20k+/month, you’re almost certainly leaving money on the table. Schedule a Free Discovery Call. 90% of People Can’t Tell Real Video From AI AI video has crossed a major realism threshold. In a controlled study by Runway, 1,043 participants watched 20 short videos (10 real, 10 AI-generated) and nnly 9.5% (99 people) could reliably tell real from AI. Overall detection accuracy was 57.1%—barely above random guessing (50%). Where AI fooled people the most, viewers were in Animals & architecture videos, where detection fell below chance (45–47%), meaning people often thought AI videos were real. Humans (faces, hands, actions) are slightly easier to detect as models are creating more realistic human features, especially when looked closely, but still weak at 58–65% accuracy. AI video quality has improved exponentially since early 2023. What once took minutes to generate blurry clips and hands with 6-8 fingers now produces near-indistinguishable 5-second videos. The industry has hit a tipping point in terms of detection alone. But it also changes the way videos and even movie studios create footage. The technology will continue to become more powerful, fast and more realistic, to the point that entire high-quality movies will be created with powerful prompts. The winner may be the best storytellers with great imagination who know what people need emotionally. Video authenticity is officially broken. In the AI era, “seeing is believing” no longer applies, and trust will have to be engineered, not assumed. 📚Learning Corner Coding Best practices for coding with agents How to write a good spec for AI agents AI Is Rewriting Product Development Manufacturers are using AI to compress weeks or months of R&D into days and unlock solutions humans wouldn’t normally try. PPG used deterministic AI (physics + chemistry, not chatbots) to design a fast-drying automotive clear coat. Dry time dropped from ~30 minutes to ~5 minutes when heated at 140°F. Air-dry time fell to <1 hour vs ~2 hours for competitors. Result: higher body-shop throughput and real commercial sales. Procter & Gamble uses AI to generate new scents for soaps, detergents, and home fragrances. Mars cut development time 40% on a redesigned gum bottle and saved 246 tons of plastic. 3M applied AI to optimize a sanding disc for better dust capture and grinding performance. Its CTO calls AI a “fourth expert” in the lab. Startups and suppliers like Citrine Informatics report customers shrinking product development cycles from weeks to days, optimizing multiple properties at once (strength, weight, cost, sustainability). AI seems to be quietly becoming a core R&D engine in chemicals, materials, and manufacturing, driving faster launches, lower costs, and sustainability gains. ChatGPT’s Lead Is Shrinking as Gemini Surges Source: SimilarWeb The AI traffic race is tightening fast. ChatGPT fell to 64.6% global traffic share in January 2026, down from 86.6% a year ago (–22 pts). This is the first time below 65% since 2023, per Similarweb. Gemini jumped to 22% share, up from 5.3% last January, a +315% increase YoY. Grok overtook DeepSeek for the first time (3.5% vs 3.3%). Claude held at 2.1%; Perplexity slipped to 1.9%; Microsoft Copilot fell to 1.1%. Why Gemini is winning Google embedded Gemini across Search, Gmail, Workspace, and Android, driving massive distribution. Monthly users jumped from 450M to 650M in 2025. The new Google-Apple partnership positions Gemini models inside Apple Intelligence later this year. Still, ChatGPT dominates influence ChatGPT drove 1.6B outbound website visits (Sep–Nov 2025) vs 287M from Gemini. AI-referred traffic converts ~11× better than search (1.66% vs 0.15%), though it’s still <1% of total web traffic for most sites. Big picture The AI market is fragmenting fast. ChatGPT remains the largest player, but distribution, not model quality alone, is now the decisive weapon. For marketers and publishers, “optimize for Google” is no longer enough; AI platform–specific strategies are now mandatory. 🧰 AI Tools of The Day Explore our AI Guides — From coding to photography and beyond, find step-by-step tips to put AI to work for you. 🚀 Showcase Your Innovation in the Premier Tech and AI Newsletter (link) As a vanguard in the realm of technology and artificial intelligence, we pride ourselves in delivering cutting-edge insights, AI tools, and in-depth coverage of emerging technologies to over 55,000+ tech CEOs, managers, programmers, entrepreneurs, and enthusiasts. Our readers represent the brightest minds from industry giants such as Tesla, OpenAI, Samsung, IBM, NVIDIA, and countless others. Reserve a Spot Explore sponsorship possibilities and elevate your brand's presence in the world of tech and AI. Learn more about partnering with us. You’re a free subscriber to Yaro’s Newsletter. For the full experience, become a paying subscriber. Subscribe for $1/Month Disclaimer: We do not give financial advice. Everything we share is the result of our research and our opinions. Please do your own research and make conscious decisions.   Like Comment Restack   © 2026 Yaro Celis 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe