Thursday, October 6, 2022

🚦 Do not enter

October 06, 2022 View online | Sign up
Finny
Gist
TOGETHER WITH Finny

Good Thursday to you. Can you guess what FICO credit score usually will get you the best loan rates in the US? (FICO scores range from 300 to 850.) a. 680, b. 760, c. 830. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Today's finance & investing topics are:

  • The stock market isn't taking new applicants
  • What's a home purchase cancellation?
  • The 28/36 mortgage rule  

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Stock Market Isn't Taking New Applicants

In 2021, companies in the US raised over $155B in funding from their public offerings. Now, money is scared and businesses are apprehensive. Having raised just $7.2B this year with 159 IPOs, the stock market is on pace for its lowest number of new entrants since 2016.   

The IPO reckoning

  • The culling: We set IPO records in both 2020 and 2021. With a new high of 480 notched in 2020, last year smashed this record with 1,035 newly listed companies. That rapid expansion has cooled just as fast, and we’re on pace for a 79% decline from 2021. 
  • Do not enter: The market has hung its hurricane flags to warn potential suitors of the danger that could befall them if they venture in. About 87% of businesses that went public last year are down, and most of them are down tremendously — the average loss is almost 50%. 
  • Patience makes perfect: Hundreds of companies have either abandoned or postponed their IPO plans, with many taking it month by month. Others with enough interest and cachet like Klarna have relegated themselves to private equity for now, which is also downtrodden.

The bigger picture

The reality is that this isn’t anything new. We only saw 47 IPOs back in 2008 during the financial crisis when the S&P 500 fell over 30% that year; it’s entirely normal for businesses to retreat when the market is suffering. 

Things like this hurt retail traders buying individual stocks the most though, and serve as a reminder to invest, and speculate, with caution — especially during tumultuous times like this.

HOUSING

What's a Home Purchase Cancellation?

Giphy

Fresh data points out that around 72% of recent homebuyers who purchased within the last couple of years are now regretting their decision. The reasons vary from home cost to feeling rushed, but the end result is remorse. 

This has bled into the number of purchase cancellations we’ve seen recently too, with 15.2% of contracts being canceled in August — up from 12.1% a year ago. It’s better to change your mind about a home sooner than later, for sure. However, there are some things to know first. 

FYI — Home purchase cancellations

  • Canceling risks: Homebuyers are usually required to put down some earnest money upon agreeing to purchase, usually 1% to 5% of the home price. If you choose to cancel, you might risk losing this earnest money and anything else you’ve spent so far if the cancellation isn’t warranted by unmet contingencies. 
  • Leverage contingencies: Contingencies are items specified in your purchase agreement that must be met for the contract to bind. These are things like your financing, appraisal, home inspections, title search, and other requests that either party can make. If you think cancellation is possible, avoid compromising on contingencies, and use them to your advantage — unmet contingencies provide a valid cancellation request and shouldn’t lose your earnest money. 
  • Proceed with caution: Ultimately, the best thing any homebuyer can do is take the time to carefully consider their options and eventual decision to buy. If there are potential threats to your purchase on the horizon, make an effort to accommodate those in your contingency requests.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

TOGETHER WITH THE DAILY VALET.

Get Ready To Be More Interesting

There's so much going on these days, it's hard to know what's worthy of your attention. The Daily Valet. is your inside track to what's happening, what's cool and the events to keep on your radar. 

They cover news, guidance and the latest product recommendations from their editors, all in a handy, 5-minute read that ends with a shot of daily inspiration. It’s as enlightening as it is entertaining. Readers are saying “it’s an essential morning read that spans lots of different interests.”

Think of The Daily Valet. as your cheat sheet to what you need to know about right now. Never walk into a meeting or after-hours drinks and feel caught off guard again. 

Subscribe for free.👉

MONEY TIP

The 28/36 Mortgage Rule

There’s a limitless number of “rules of thumb” out there in the world of personal finance. The reality is that everyone’s exact ratios will be a little different, but these rules can be great guidelines to follow anyway, nudging us in the proper direction. 

Continuing in the spirit of homeownership, let’s zoom in on another mortgage-related rule, the 28/36 rule. 

The ins and outs 

  • 28/36 overview: The 28/36 rule simply suggests that a borrower shouldn’t use more than 28% of their gross monthly income on housing expenses, and no more than 36% toward total debt servicing. 
  • Put into practice: Let’s say you make $5K per month. That means you’d ideally spend no more than $1,400 a month on housing, and no more than $1,800 on debt including housing. 
  • The reasoning: This rule combines both your housing costs and total debt obligations because your debt-to-income ratio (DTI) is very important to lenders, and an indicator of how likely you are to meet payment obligations. It’s possible to exceed this “ideal” ratio, but the higher you go the higher your interest rate will be.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Li Auto (-11.5%) despite no new announcements today; last week however, the Chinese EV maker cut its Q3 delivery guidance by 2,500 vehicles or 9% on supply chain constraints.
  • McCormick (-1%) as quarterly earnings were lower than the street's estimate (revenue was in-line); the spice maker said that expenses outpaced product price increases and that it was now recovering costs through pricing actions.
  • S&P 500 Index (-0.4%) to $3,769.91 (1D)
  • Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) to $11,132.32 (1D)
  • Bitcoin (-0.5%) to $20,070.80 (1D)
  • Ethereum (+0.9%) to $1,364.85 (1D)

This commentary is as of 8:40 am PDT. 

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • ✨ Answer: 760 is the magic number“The best published interest rates for auto loans are 720+ and for mortgages 760+,” says financial expert John Ulzheimer, formerly of FICO and Equifax (CNBC)
  • 🛒 Walmart is holding a “Rollbacks and More” sale event to counter Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale. It'll start on October 10 at 5am EDT and end on the 13th (TechCrunch)
  • 🥴 ICYMI. Homebuyer’s remorse: why recent homebuyers are regretful (Finny)
  • ⤵️ Mortgage applications plummet 14% as higher interest rates and Hurricane Ian crush demand (CNBC)
  • 🍻 The #1 perk that will bring Gen Z and millennials into the office (CNBC)
  • 🎯 Finny lesson of the day. With rates going up, the difference between a good credit score and a fair one can mean thousands of dollars of savings, depending on our purchase. Here's a refresher on some basics:

Finny is a financial wellness platform on a mission to make your money work for you. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin PayneCarla OlsonChihee Kim. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice.

We're thankful for the support of today's sponsor & partner⁠—The Daily Valet.—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback for us, please contact us.

© Finny 2022. All rights reserved.
736 Paloma Ave, Burlingame CA 94010

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

🎢 Out of style

October 04, 2022 View online | Sign up
Finny
Gist
TOGETHER WITH Finny

Good day. Based on a recent survey, can you guess which of the following expenses is contributing the most to credit card holders who carry a balance? a. day-to-day expenses like groceries, b. retail purchases like clothes, c.  emergency expenses like a car repair. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Today's finance & investing topics are:

  • Growth fears return
  • Volatility is out of style 
  • It’s FAFSA time again

ECONOMY

Growth Fears Return

The markets have been pounded by heaps of disparaging news over the last several weeks. Preceded by news of a consecutive quarterly decline in US GDP, more data has since piled up, indicating that this growth slump might be more than just a blip.  

The culprits — bears of bad news

  • Resilient inflation: July’s inflation report gave us a little hope, August’s let us down, and it presently appears that it might not drop as quickly as we previously hoped. Inflation is stiff elsewhere too, with the UK logging 9.9% in August’s report while Canada notched 7%, Mexico 8.7%, India, 7.6%, and Germany 7.9%. 
  • Aggressive central banks: Inflation is stubborn, but so is the Fed, and central banks around the world are willing to play chicken with rising costs and see who folds first. The US Fed reinforced its stiff posture on inflation, noting that “no one knows if there will be a recession or how severe and that achieving a soft landing was always difficult." Other central banks across the world have followed suit. 
  • The dollar's growing strength: The dollar continues to rise, and is now up over 21% over the last year. While that might seem like a positive, it creates a drag on both the domestic and global economy when it's exacerbated. USD’s strength is dampening profits, exports, and potentially other economies too. 
  • An overall slowdown globally: US GDP has declined through the first two quarters of 2022, Europe underwent a sharp decline in activity last month after also posting lower GDP numbers, and a large swath of developed nations have lost some momentum in the wake of war, inflation, and reactionary monetary policy.

Where’s the light?

All of this has thrown the global economy into a disarray of sorts. As a result, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has reigned in global growth estimates to 3% this year, further dropping to 2.3% in 2023. 

All of this leaves us with more questions than answers, and the one thing that’s certain right now is uncertainty as the world tries to correct its elongated tailspin that started back in 2020.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

INVESTING

Volatility is Out of Style

Volatility has entered the limelight over the last 24 months as meme stocks and retail traders took the markets on a wild ride. And it’s still here too, with the volatility index ($VIX) sustaining its heightened levels all year. 

Despite the bumpy ride, volatility is falling a bit out of favor. Investors are tired of the roller coaster and just want a little safety nowadays. 

Watch the money

  • Shelter from the waves: Our most recent data shows that $6.5B has flowed into low volatility funds thus far in 2022, putting them on track to log their first net inflow since 2019. Despite their lackluster performance in 2020, it’s easy to see why investors and money managers are giving them another chance. 
  • What are these LV funds? Low volatility funds are at their best when markets are at their worst. Their holdings and the weight of those holdings are designed to mitigate volatility and give investors a smoother ride over rough terrain. Think of them as the Cadillac of ETFs. 
  • The downside: It’s hard to have your cake and eat it too. Although these funds protect against big volatility waves, they’ll also leave investors out of bull runs. Between June 2020 and December 31st, 2021 when the S&P rose 49%, the top min vol fund by assets, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF ($USMV), climbed about 27%, lagging the market by 22%. 
  • Their resolve: The inverse is also true. While the S&P has fallen almost 10% in the last month, $USMV and others (depending on their holdings) have dipped about 8%. Over a longer span, the S&P has fallen 20% this year, while low volatility funds like this one have fallen 13%.

Peaking ahead 

Is this “bullish” for these kinds of funds? Not really, more like less bearish. But hey, losing by 10 is better than losing by 50.  

Going forward, we can reasonably expect this level of volatility to continue, making it likely these funds will continue to rake in new cash at least for the remainder of the year.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

TOGETHER WITH ON DECK

Join The Most Helpful Operator Angels Around The World

On Deck Angels (ODA) is a continuous community for the world’s most helpful operator angels. 

Kickstarting with an 8-week immersive onboarding, they combine a world-class curriculum, exclusive deal flow and an incredible network of peers to help you win deals, define your investing craft and build long-lasting relationships in the ecosystem.

ODA will help you meet your angel investing goals whether you’re just getting started, a prolific angel investor or an emerging fund manager. 

Here’s what Caroline Gash (Early-stage investor and operator) had to share about her ODA experience:

I came to ODA because I was looking for the peer group to grow the next ten years of my career with.

As investors we can become really siloed and function in echo chambers. I strongly believe that having diverse opinions, geographic regions, industries makes us all stronger in investing and that was a core set of ODA.

To join the next cohort, apply by October 9. Limited spots available.

MONEY TIP

It’s FAFSA Time Again

Filling out a FAFSA isn’t a requirement for attending university, but it certainly could make it a lot cheaper. Sure, it might seem a little intimidating and intrusive on the surface, but once you get the hang of it, this annual process becomes much easier. 

Filling out your FAFSA form could get you access to potentially thousands in dollars of aid — and that’s life-changing for anyone. The application period for the 2022-23 school year opened on October 1st, and it’s best to get started early. 

What to know this year

  • You likely qualify for aid: Data from 2020 shows that about 85% of undergraduates received financial aid. Even if you think you might not qualify, there’s a good chance you do. The formula for calculating this is a little complex, but it takes into account more than just income.

Annual data not available before 2015.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics

  • If you need a student loan, you need a FAFSA. Students applying for a Federal loan are required to fill out a FAFSA form even if they’re not eligible or applying for financial aid, and doing so is worth it. If taking out a loan, Federal student loans usually offer much lower interest rates compared with private lenders, plus, they allow the option of securing a subsidized student loan too, which doesn’t accrue interest during school. 
  • Otherwise, still do it: Even for students who don’t plan on taking out a loan, FAFSA can still be important to you because many universities use this information in conjunction with their own to determine the awards and compensation they give out.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Peloton (+15.3%) on yesterday's news that the company will put bikes in all 5,400 Hilton-branded US hotels in the U.S. The partnership includes all 18 of Hilton's subsidiaries, including Hampton Inn and Doubletree.
  • Poshmark (+13.3%) following news that Naver, a South Korean internet company, will buy the online retail site for $1.2B in an all-cash deal.
  • S&P 500 Index (+2.9%) to $3,785.17 (1D)
  • Bitcoin (+1.9%) to $20,001.00 (1D)
  • Ethereum (+1.9%) to $1,349.05 (1D)

This commentary is as of 8:30 am PDT. 

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • 🚨 Answer: emergency expenses came out on top with 46% of respondents saying they’re carrying a balance because of an emergency expense like a car or home repair; 24% said it's due to everyday expenses like groceries and 11% pointed to retail purchases as their main reason (CNBC
  • 🛒 Amazon debuts new shopping portal for customers on government assistance (CNN)
  • 📈 ICYMI. Relief rallies in a bear market (Finny)
  • 🚀 Turkey’s inflation hits 83% as Erdogan vows to keep cutting interest rates (CNBC)
  • 🏠 Arrived makes it easy to buy shares of rental homes, allowing anyone to earn passive income starting with $100. Real estate investment returns have proven to be remarkably stable over time and are a great hedge against stock market fluctuations. View available investment properties (Arrived)
  • 🚝 These 3 European countries will soon be linked to the rest of Europe via high-speed rail (Travel Awaits)
  • ☔ Finny lesson of the day. If you haven't yet started to save up for your emergency savings, get started by going through this bite-sized learning on the topic:

Finny is a financial wellness platform on a mission to make your money work for you. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin PayneCarla OlsonChihee Kim. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice.

We're thankful for the support of today's sponsor & partner⁠—On Deck, Arrived—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback for us, please contact us.

© Finny 2022. All rights reserved.
736 Paloma Ave, Burlingame CA 94010

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

🔍 It's different this time around

September 27, 2022 View online | Sign up
Finny
Gist
TOGETHER WITH Finny

Good Tuesday to you. Can you guess which of the following drove over 60% of the increase in US rent & housing prices recently? a. surging lumber prices, b. shortage of supply, c. shift to remote work.  Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Topics for today:

  • The return of the zero-down mortgage
  • Where to invest $10K right now
  • Money trends that make us uneasy

HOUSING

The Return of the Zero-Down Mortgage

For those who lived through the 2008 housing market crash, the words “zero-down mortgages” might need to come with a trigger warning. 

Now in 2022, no downpayment mortgages are making a return, but let’s not give in to the slippery slope fallacy and panic before reading the fine print. 

What’s going on?

Word has gotten around that zero-down mortgages are back mostly because of Bank of America’s new “zero downpayment” program. BofA and others like JP Morgan Chase and TD Bank have also created similar programs, with each bank allocating billions to the cause.

The program aims to provide select groups of first-time homebuyers from mostly black and Hispanic neighborhoods the opportunity to become homeowners to close the homeownership gap in the US. Instead of requiring a credit report, programs like these will evaluate applicants based on things like income, rent and bill payment history, and other financial measurables not accounted for by a simple credit check. 

The name is a slight misnomer though because BofA is helping homebuyers with the down payment via a grant of up to $10,000-$15,000, giving buyers real equity in the property from the start.

Then and now 

  • What happened in 08’: Zero-down mortgages and subprime lending are sore subjects for many Americans because of the wreckage those practices caused in 2008. A confluence of events including low rates, lax lending, adjustable rates, and rampant speculation in the secondary markets (MBS & CDOs) created a disastrous situation when rates rebounded and home prices dropped. The tide went out with millions skinny dipping, and the markets collapsed across the board.
  • How it’s different now: Leading up to the crisis back in 2005, adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) made up about 35% of the mortgage market — now they account for 10%.  Household debt relative to disposable income was also at all-time highs back then and is now the lowest it’s ever been. Additionally, lending requirements for both borrowers and lenders are much more stringent now. 
  • It’s important to note that zero-down programs like those being offered now aren’t representative of something as infectious as the widespread lending practices of 2008, so there’s no need for panic. Nevertheless, these programs do come with their own unique risks, so they should be evaluated carefully before being accepted.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

INVESTING

Where to Invest $10K Right Now

Likely one of the most common questions ever asked in the investment world is “where should I invest $X amount right now?” And for good reason, we’re all searching for ideas that can help generate the best ROI possible on our money. 

Before you invest though

Having $10K saved does not mean having $10K to invest. Before we plow money into a market of any kind, it’s important to make sure we secure all the basics. 

What’s that? Having an emergency fund of at least 3 months worth of expenses, paying off high-interest debt, and consistently investing for retirement. Once those boxes are checked, sure, invest whatever amount is left over as you please.

Ideas for the present

  • Focus on income: The markets are in the midst of a unique situation sponsored by a unique array of negative catalysts we’re eagerly waiting out. If you’re not a fan of risk, it might be best to focus your extra cash on more stable, income-producing assets like Series I Bonds, Treasuries, CDs, and high dividend blue chip stocks or stock funds. 
  • Find the loners: If you’re in the mood for a little extra legwork in the research department, venturing out to try and find some laggards might be a worthwhile exercise for you. If you can identify a stock, sector, or strategy that’s beaten down disproportionately and due for a good bounce over the long-term, this might give you a great bang for your ten thousand bucks. 
  • Go private: Despite the abundance of options listed on the public markets, the overwhelming majority of US businesses are still privately owned. Private equity is a bit detached from the public markets in several ways and has recently become more accessible than ever to the average investor. Now might be a good time to “venture” into venture capital if you’re comfortable with high risk and enjoy the hunt. 
  • Simply wait: Periods of rising rates and quantitative tightening have not been kind to investors historically, and many economists are calling for an ongoing contraction for the foreseeable future. This means we could be waiting a while for prosperous conditions to return, and it might be best not to fight the Fed with active investing right now.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

TOGETHER WITH DEFI SAVER

Automate Your DeFi Management

DeFi protocols are mostly used for lending, borrowing, yield farming, and leveraging crypto assets. Tracking collateral to debt ratio, asset prices, liquidation limits, APYs, and market movements can be time-consuming, like a full-time job!

That’s why DeFi Saver developed an all-in-one dashboard for creating, managing and tracking your DeFi positions with unique automated liquidation protection and leverage management features.

Here’s how it works. You input your desired collateral and debt ratios, and DeFi Saver monitors your debt positions:

  • If the market is bullish, it will borrow and increase your leverage to give you more exposure. 
  • If the market is bearish, it will sell off part of your collateral to prevent liquidation and loss of funds.

DeFi Saver supports MakerDAO, Aave, Liquity, and Compound. And it's live on Optimism and Arbitrum! You can automate your Aave v3 positions on the two leading L2 networks with drastically lower tx fees.

Learn about automating your DeFi management.

MONEY MINDSET

Credit Trends That Make Us Uneasy

It’s becoming increasingly common for Americans to be straddled with credit card debt. Is it an indicator of financial hardship, a result of welcome bonuses spreading like wildfire, or somewhere in between? 

The data behind the trend

  • Debt overall: Total consumer debt rose another $23.8B in July of this year to top $4.64T in aggregate, a number that’s risen precipitously over the last few years. 
  • Keeping debt around: CreditCards.com conducted a survey a year ago that showed 50% of respondents saying they’d been in credit card debt for more than a year. Now, that number has risen to 60%, directly in lockstep with the share of debtors who’d been in credit card debt for 2+ years, which rose from 32% to 40%. 
  • The reasons behind it: 46% of survey participants cited having to cover emergencies or unexpected expenses as key reasons for carrying a balance. Almost a quarter (24%) said their reason for carrying a balance was due to their inability to afford day-to-day expenses.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Verve Therapeutics (+10.8%) as Cathie Wood recently added shares of the  biotech company specializing in gene-editing therapies to treat cardiovascular disease to 2 of its ETFs ($ARKK and $ARKG)
  • Retailers are preparing for a challenging holiday shopping season. To prepare, Amazon (-0.8%) is running a second Prime Day on October 11-12, Walmart (-0.7%) wants to lure in younger shopping through its Roblox store in the metaverse, and Macy’s (+2.3%) will hire only half the seasonal workers it did last year.
  • Bitcoin (+2.8%) to $19,789.60 (1D)
  • Ethereum (+1.7%) to $1,359.85 (1D)

This commentary is as of 9:00 am PDT.

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • 📈 Answer: The shift to remote work drove over 60% of the housing-price surge, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of SF (Bloomberg)
  • 💲 A strong US dollar threatens to cut the profits of a third of the companies in the S&P 500 this quarter/Q3 (Bloomberg)
  • 💵 ICYMI. Why is the US dollar going up? (Finny)
  • ₿ IRS steps up efforts to target U.S. taxpayers who failed to report and pay taxes on cryptocurrency transactions (CNBC)
  • 💳 How can you outsmart your high-interest credit card debt? Tally's lower-interest line of credit was designed to get people out of credit card debt faster and save big. Check your rate without hurting your credit score (Tally)
  • 💰 Finny lesson of the day. About that S&P 500... find out what the index is and how it's calculated:

Finny is a financial wellness platform on a mission to make your money work for you. The Gist is Finny's twice-a-week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. The content team: Austin PayneCarla OlsonChihee Kim. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice.

We're thankful for the support of today's sponsor & partner⁠—DeFi Saver, Tally—as they make rewards on our platform possible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback for us, please contact us.

© Finny 2022. All rights reserved.
736 Paloma Ave, Burlingame CA 94010